After two and a half years of recession that started officially in Dec 2007 and led to 750,000+ a month job losses by Jan 2009, the economy appeared to have turned around in March 2009 based on the observation of the equities market and the positive first derivative of the job losses data.
However, for months economists have watched to see the jobs situation follow the markets and the data has failed (lagged) to follow suit for several months until Nov 2009 when the first positive jobs number for entire month was first recorded (for the last deep recession iin the 80s although not as deep as the current one it took 24 months from the bottom to see positive jobs numbers).
Right now the curve of jobs data is begining to show rate of jobs losses down to significant growth levels. However, more importantly is the trend in the rate of hires. If the current trend persists for the next few months, we WILL begin to actually reverse the unemployment rate (faster than predicted - well the markets and some of the other indicators including GDP are fast outpacing predicted levels also).
One reason why I have trusted Gallup's job numbers is the fact they are derived directly from a polling of employers who hire. The figures have also correlated very well all through the past years with the much later monthly job numbers.
While some continue to predict doom, consume doomsday and negative one-sided news or persist in wallowing in anger and in some cases unrecognized hate, for me I will be making some choice short term investments a few days ahead of the next monthly jobs report.
Thanks to GoldenGateMami for recounting an employment experience. And network-gal.